The primary goal of the first few rounds in Fantasy Football for me is to avoid players that will become landmines and be the reason for not having a successful fantasy year. After these initial rounds is where you can gain a clear advantage over your league mates and identify players that have the potential to give you league winning upside. These league winning upside players will outperform their average draft position (ADP) by a huge margin and I below they are ranked far too low. I am comfortable taking any of these players a full round before their ADP, if not more. We have labeled these players as Superheroes.
Quarterbacks
1. Anthony Richardson (ECR: QB5 ADP: 55)
Anthony Richardson is a 6’4, 245 lb second-year quarterback who was limited to only 98 dropbacks in 2023, as he suffered a concussion in Week 2, which ended his week early and forced him to miss Week 3, and of course, in Week 5, Richardson suffered his season-ending shoulder injury. However, Richardson showed some solid traits in this small sample size. Richardson made impressive off-balance throws using his top-5 NFL arm strength and was lethal when he decided to leave the pocket and scramble for yards. Richardson averaged 0.74 fantasy points per dropback during his time on the field, which ranked #1 in the NFL. Richardson also was only able to play the majority of snaps in just two games during this timeframe, and he was able to finish as the QB4 (21.9 fantasy points) and QB2 (29.6 fantasy points) overall in fantasy points for those weeks, so there is potential fantasy football stardom lurking here. Expanding on his fantasy value, he averaged six attempts for 34 yards and scored four rushing touchdowns, accounting for nearly 20% of Colt’s rushing attempts during this same timeframe.
Although Richardson missed most of the season, Shane Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis was a success, as the Colts were legitimately competitive last season with Gardner Minshew. The Colts led the NFL in pace, averaging 24 seconds per snap, also led the NFL with a nearly 17% no-huddle rate, and ran RPOs on over 18% of their snaps, which all ranked #1 in the NFL in 2023. Although Richardson has elite Cam Newton-like size and strength, he could greatly benefit from sliding more or getting out of bounds in 2024 to stay healthy. The Colts also selected WR Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round of the 2024 NFL Draft to add to a potent offense that already includes talented running back Jonathon Taylor and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Richardson’s primary goal in 2024 should be to stay healthy as he has a rocket arm paired with elite rushing ability; he also must take a massive step in his processing. However, he has both the coaching and supporting cast to do so. Suppose Anthony Richardson stays healthy for an entire season. In that case, he will more than likely be the overall QB1 in 2024, as his rare combination of size, speed, and situation have him set up to become a fantasy football superhero.
2. Trevor Lawerence (ECR: QB16 ADP: 119)
Trevor Lawerence finished the 2023 season as the QB13 in fantasy throwing for 4016 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 2023. Following the 2023 season, the Jaguars gave him a new $275 million contract extension to make him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history. Lawrence had an incredibly rough rookie year 2021 with Urban Meyer and essentially had a fresh start under Doug Pederson in 2022 and 2023. During these past two seasons, Lawerence has thrown for 8,129 passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns against 22 interceptions, and completed 66% of his passes in this timeframe. These statistics resulted in a QB8 finish in 2022 and QB13 in 2023, which makes his ECR of QB16 extremely puzzling, as Lawerence easily cleared his ECR each of the previous two seasons despite not playing at his ceiling. Trust your eyes with Lawerence; the stats have been fine and will improve.
The 2023 season was a tale of two halves for Lawerence as from week 1 to week 10, Lawerence ranked as QB19; however, from week 11 on, Lawerence was the QB7, increasing his passing yards per game from 236 yards to 271 yards and throwing nearly a touchdown more per game from 1.0 to 1.7. Last season, Lawerence ranked in the top five in big-time throws with 33. However, he also finished with 24 turnover-worthy plays, which resulted in 21 turnovers. I am willing to bet on his talent and the big-time throw numbers, and Lawerence will take the next step and translate it into the field into wins and losses and better td/int and big-time-throw to turnover-worthy play ratios in 2024. The Jaguars were also active in free agency, signing wide receiver Gabe Davis from the Bills and drafting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Just watching Lawerence play, his arm talent and scrambling abilities are elite and above average. I see that he has always shown flashes of brilliance, and he will become a far more consistent quarterback this season and be a solid QB1 for fantasy teams in 2024.
3. Justin Herbert (ECR: QB17 ADP: 128)
In 2023, Justin Herbert had his worst statistical season as a pro, but he still finished as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Herbert is now ranked QB17 by “experts,” primarily due to the Chargers being a complete mess in 2023. They only managed to win 5 games, as injuries ravaged vital players on both sides of the ball, and Coach Brandon Staley was fired after a 42-point blowout loss to the Raiders in week 15. This is an example of extreme recency bias and is the most egregious and lazy ranking by fantasy “experts” this season, and I must admit I am befuddled. I understand that Herbert ranked 26th in yards per attempt and 23rd in adjusted completion % among the 45 qualifiers in 2023, and his accuracy advanced stats fell as well. However, Herbert had the lowest receiver separation in the entire NFL and had 21 dropped passes from his receivers. This lack of separation and concentration from his passing game options was the driving force behind his regression in accuracy metrics if you watched the games.
It is very easy to just pluck stats off of websites and feel like you’ve done an excellent analysis; however, the eye test must matter. Experts are drafting Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff over Herbert this year, and if you are reading this and agree with the experts, unfortunately, we do not see the game in the same way. Herbert’s ECR of QB17 is the most disrespectful ranking of 2023, and I will try to get my hands on him in every draft I partake in this year. Fantasy managers will look back very quickly and see that this was one of if not the worst “expert” rankings in fantasy football history.
(Below are a few Herbert facts if you are still not convinced)
- Justin Herbert records: 1. Passing Yards=Justin Herbert surpassed Andrew Luck’s record for the most passing yards by an NFL quarterback in their first two seasons.
- 2. Total Touchdowns=Justin Herbert broke Dan Marino’s record for the most total touchdowns in an NFL quarterback’s first two seasons.
- 3. Franchise Records: Herbert set franchise records in his second season with 5,014 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.
4. Will Levis (ECR: QB24 ADP 155)
Will Levis’s first NFL start wasn’t until week 8 last season in 2023. However, the second half of the NFL season put Mr. Levis on the fantasy football radar as he showed he is a very entertaining gunslinger, throwing 4 touchdown passes in his debut. While Levis did struggle to replicate his debut (throwing 4 total passing touchdowns in the next 7 starts combined), he has the arm talent to be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL as he has prototypical NFL size of 6’3, 235 lbs., with above-average mobility and excellent arm strength. He will need to learn when to grip it and rip it and when not to force the issue, as he nearly had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws as Levis ended up with 16 big-time throws against 14 turnover-worth plays last season. Levis also needs to do a much better job protecting himself from hits when he leaves the pocket, as he took some unnecessary hits during his rookie year last year. The eye test shows that Levis can generate elite velocity on his throws; however, his inconsistent footwork sometimes causes him to miss on some “layup throws.”
After watching a few Titan games in September, compared to when Levis took the reins, the Tennesse Titans had a significantly better chance of winning NFL football games. The report on Levis coming into the NFL was that he was an unfinished product, albeit talented, drawing some comparisons to Josh Allen (diet version). Despite the loss of Derrick Henry to Baltimore, to help spurt Levis’s development, the Titans signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in the offseason and invested in improving their offensive line. These offseason additions join wideout Deandre Hopkins on a much improved Titan offense that will surprise a lot of people. If you like rostering two quarterbacks or want to stack up on other positions and wait on a quarterback, I recommend drafting Will Levis in rounds 11-13.
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