Finding players to avoid in Fantasy can be more productive than trying to find players to target, as depending on where you draft, you will not have the opportunity to draft a good chunk of the available players. These “landmines,” however, are not affected by this; if one of the “landmines” is at the top of the draft board when you are on the clock, you will be able to move down the list on your draft board and select your next targeted player. These players have made this DO NOT DRAFT list because they are ranked too high in rankings, have too high of an ADP relative to value, or simply a “gut call” using the eye test. These overrated players could become toxic to your 2024 Fantasy Football roster building and should be avoided entirely. While it’s possible that a few of these ‘landmines’ may not detonate and could have successful fantasy seasons, I am confident that at least 66% of these ‘landmines’ will be avoided. By steering clear of these ‘landmines ‘, you can significantly increase your chances of having a successful fantasy year.

*Using top 150 PPR Players

ECR=Expert Composite Ranking (Full PPR)

ADP=Average Draft Position (Composite)

Running Backs

1. Rachaad White: (ECR: 12 ADP: 35)

Rachaad White finished the 2023 season as the RB10 in fantasy on the strength of his opportunities, ranking in the top-7 in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunities amongst his running back peers. White also had the second-most carries overall and finished in the top 10 in both targets and red zone touches in 2023. While opportunity and volume are paramount for NFL running backs in fantasy, running backs also need to be efficient to maintain that role, and White struggled mightily in this area. According to PFF, of the 50 running backs who qualified, White finished in the bottom ten in missed tackles forced per attempt, explosive run rate, and yards after contact per attempt. As stated, White finished in the top 10 in overall target volume amongst running backs. However, he finished in the bottom 8 of targets per route run and was 18th in targets per route run out of the 50 running backs who qualified last year. There are scenarios in which Tampa Bay runs it back and gives Rachaad White a similar volume to last year. However, they drafted talented running back Bucky Irving out of Oregon in the 4th round, and he is expected to contribute immediately. I prefer other running back options at his 4th round ADP, like Joe Mixon or Josh Jacobs, and will be actively avoiding Rachaad White in 2024.

2. Aaron Jones: (ECR: 18 ADP: 55)

Aaron Jones missed six complete games and the parts of 2 others in 2023 due to knee and hamstring injuries. According to PFF, when he was on the field in 2023, he had career lows in both yards per attempt (4.5 yards) and breakaway run rate (19%). Jones was 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.7 yards), outside the top 32 in explosive run rate (3.5%), and forced missed tackles per attempt rate (16%) among the 50 running backs who qualified. On the flip side, during weeks 15-20 last season, Jones produced an average of 22 touches for 120 total yards while improving his explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt into the top 10 of those same 50 running backs who qualified. However, with Jones now 30 and joining a new team with a rookie quarterback, the impact of these changes on his performance in 2024 cannot be overlooked. I am betting on Father Time and will not be rostering Aaron Jones in 2024.

3. Javonte Williams: (ECR: 27 ADP: 115)

Javonte Williams finished 2023 as the RB31, coming off a brutal multi-ligament knee injury in 2022. Volume and opportunity are king in Fantasy land, and Williams ranked among the top half of NFL running backs in total touches in 2023 with 264 touches. The concern was what he did with the touches, as out of 50 qualified running backs he was 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt last year. This inefficiency led to Williams finishing last among the 50 running backs in fantasy points per opportunity and yards per touch. I was very high on Williams in 2021 and 2022, even drafting him in the early second round in 2022. However, his career-altering knee injury has caused me to correct course. I do not believe Williams can return to his pre-injury form, and he is also on one of the lowest-scoring projected offenses in the NFL, with the worst of the first-round rookie quarterbacks in Bo Nix as a starter. These factors will lead me to have zero fantasy football exposure to Javonte Williams in 2024.