1. Jalen Hurts: (ECR: 2 ADP: 30)

Jalen Hurts’ performance took a notable dip in 2023, averaging 21.9 PPR points per game compared to 25.6 in 2022. This decline was accompanied by reductions in passing yards per game (247 to 226), yards per attempt (8.0 to 7.2), and passer rating (101.5 to 89.1). Despite finishing as the QB2 overall in 2023, Hurts heavily relied on his 15 rushing touchdowns, which accounted for nearly 25% of his total fantasy points. If he had scored eight rushing touchdowns instead of 15, he would have fallen to QB6, just behind Jordan Love. The absence of Jason Kelce, particularly for the Tush Push play, will significantly impact Hurts’ performance. Kelce was elite at getting off the ball and being Hurt’s best lead blocker. Jalen Hurts will have trouble replicating his top-2 fantasy finishes of 2022 and 2023 this season and could finish far lower than “experts” predict.

2. CJ Stroud: (ECR: 6 ADP: 49)

CJ Stroud finished his 2023 rookie season as QB11 and is now being drafted as QB5 in 2024. I understand that Stroud is a very talented quarterback and will be the Texan’s franchise quarterback for the next decade. However, in the context of fantasy football, his ADP of late round 4 or early round 5 is far too steep of a price. Quarterbacks who regularly pick up yards on the ground are incredibly valuable in fantasy football and can be considered cheat codes. Stroud does not have the rushing upside that Anthony Richardson at a similar ADP has, or Kyler Murray or Jaden Daniels multiple rounds later. I see Stroud having a solid statistical year, and I understand fans’ desire to chase upside in fantasy football. However, there is next to zero margin of error at his current price. Stroud’s floor is much lower than other quarterbacks who scramble, and it is challenging to see Stroud returning value as a 4th round pick in 2024.

3. Tua Tagovailoa: (ECR: 13 ADP: 110)

Tua Tagovailoa finished the 2023 NFL season as the QB16 in fantasy points per game and is now being drafted as the QB13, going around the 8th/9th rounds in drafts. Tua led the NFL in total passing yards while finishing in the top 10 in attempts and the top 5 in passing touchdowns, which is very concerning because he could only manage a QB16 finish. Further analysis shows that the low finish was because of how streaky Tua was, as he finished with five games of 310-yard passing games against eight games where he didn’t cross the 250-passing-yard threshold. If Tua can become more consistent, he has an excellent opportunity to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback with such a great system, coaching, and receiver talent. The problem with trying to project Tua to finish higher on the quarterback scoring list is that Tua is simply not that good. He is an analytics darling and has the numbers. However, the eye test could be better as his below-average arm strength is apparent (consistently underthrows Hill) in overall distance and velocity on his balls. The ball does not explode off his hand, and he has far too slow of a throwing motion, making life easier on both the opposing team pass rushers and defensive backs. Tua is not a threat to run and will not give you any of the precious quarterback-rushing production others do. There is a good chance the Dolphins will look to replace Tua after this season, and he will not be rostered on any of my squads in 2024.